Can The Growth Of TWS'S Stock Continue To Decline?

The market leader of 100 billion yuan has been attacked by bad luck.

Since November, the share price of wireless headset leader gol shares began to fall continuously, falling more than 16% from the highest point.

This fall in goers shares surprised the market. Wearable devices have been a hot spot in the A-share market in the past two years. With its OEM for airpods, goer has become the object of capital pursuit. Its share price has soared all the way and doubled within the year.

From the performance point of view, gol shares in the first three quarters of revenue net profit both increased, should be the object of investors. Why did the share price fall? Or related to a survey summary posted online. According to the China Securities Journal, the survey summary pointed out that due to the slow pick-up speed of customers in North America, golfer's production speed also slowed down and inventory increased. In addition, the capacity utilization rate of air pods of gol shares decreased.

The third quarter report data of gol shares seems to confirm the above contents. As of the end of the third quarter, the company's inventory reached 12.26 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 150% compared with the same period of last year.

In response to market concerns, golfer held a conference call with institutional investors on November 16, saying that with the boost of the fourth quarter sales season, inventory problems are expected to improve. At the same time, the two executives of gol shares on November 17 urgently increased their shares to stabilize the morale of the army.

Judging from the market reaction on the 18th, goer's shares fell in the opening session, slowly rose in the afternoon, and finally turned down to rise, reaching 39.96 yuan / share, up 0.68% slightly.

However, the doubts surrounding golfer shares have not disappeared. Can the 10 billion inventory be digested in a single quarter in the fourth quarter? Behind the inventory, the growth problem caused by the decline of capacity utilization rate may be more worrying for the market. In addition, golfer's recent proposal to spin off its subsidiaries for listing will further affect the valuation of the parent company? Apple industry chain leader is facing a belief crisis.

Top 12 billion inventory?

Golfer's third quarterly report was released on the evening of October 22, and the data showed that the company's performance continued to improve thanks to the high volume of airpods and the improvement of the company's share. In the first three quarters, the revenue was 34.73 billion yuan, up 43.9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.02 billion yuan, up 104.7%; in the third quarter, the revenue was 19.16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 81.44%; the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 167.9%.

Such a performance has attracted great acclaim in the industry, which is considered to have exceeded the previous performance guidelines and market expectations.

At that time, the stock problem of golfer stock did not cause market concern. According to the third quarter report, the company's inventory at the end of the year was 12.26 billion yuan, an increase of 131.52% over the beginning of the year. The main reasons are: the expansion of the company's business scale and the increase of inventory reserves. Compared with June 30, it increased by 2.696 billion yuan and is expected to be sold in the fourth quarter.

This is also considered by the market as a sign of hot sales in the fourth quarter. For example, Southwest Securities pointed out that the company's inventory increased sharply at the end of the third quarter, and it is expected to be the peak sales season in the fourth quarter of the stock preparation, reflecting the company's annual performance guidance to a certain extent.

The bad news came from a survey summary circulated in the market, which said: "there have been some changes in TWS earphone business recently, especially in North America, where the pick-up speed of customers has slowed down, and it has been better recently. Due to the influence of festivals such as Thanksgiving, it has recovered a little. In the early stage, because of the slow down of customer's pick-up speed, golfer's production speed also slowed down, and the inventory did increase. "

"It's true that this area is not that hot some time ago. A part of TWS capacity is idle, especially for ordinary products. The capacity utilization rate is about 80%. This is the problem of the whole industry, not the problem of the ups and downs between goer and its competitors and the order being robbed. "

Although golfer did not admit the authenticity of the summary, its public survey information on November 16 verified some of the above information to some extent.

"In terms of inventory, with the expansion of the overall sales scale this year, the logistics and shipping methods of some orders have also been adjusted. At the same time, considering the factors such as stock preparation in peak sales season, the inventory level increased in the third quarter. At present, the company's sales and delivery situation is normal, with the pull of the fourth quarter sales season, the inventory problem is expected to be improved. "

In terms of capacity, goer shares responded that the current overall capacity utilization is normal, in line with expectations. Part of the new product production line efficiency is also high, the overall capacity utilization is relatively good.

Is the 12.2 billion inventory high? May as well with another airpods OEM leading company Lixun precision to do a comparison. As of the end of the third quarter, the precision inventory of Lixun was 16.99 billion yuan, up 120.66% year-on-year, an increase of 9.29 billion yuan, mainly due to the increase of orders in the second half of the year, the expansion of mass production of new products and overseas production capacity, and material preparation.

In the same industry, the stock growth rate of gol shares is still within the normal range.

Hu Yujing, an analyst in the science and technology field of CICC, wrote that the stock price adjustment of gol shares may be related to the following factors: first, worries about the production line turnover rate of airpods; second, there are some differences in the recent discussion on the long-term valuation system of consumer electronics; third, market preference turns; fourth, credit risk may also bring some selling pressure.

Can high growth be sustained?

When the market is talking about high inventory, what is it actually talking about? If combined with market demand, the level of inventory may be a false proposition.

"If the market demand is strong, then the high inventory of gol and Lixun is not a problem. It's not selling. " An analyst in the electronics industry told reporters, "the survey summary reflects a very important signal that Apple slows down the order placing speed. From a long-term perspective, it may mean that the market sales are not ideal, and the high growth expectations of gol shares and lichen may not be realized." So, what is the future of wireless headphones? Analysts remain optimistic.

"The TWS headphone market is still in the process of rapid growth, but due to the continuous improvement of the base, the decline of growth rate is a normal phenomenon. The delay of airpods 3 shipment for about a quarter has an obvious impact on the growth rate in the first half of the year, but the impact is actually rhythmic, and the absolute volume is still increasing." A long-term focus on consumer electronics private equity pointed out.

On November 18, a member of the Securities Department of golfer shares also said in response to a reporter's question called as an investor: "TWS headphones may increase with the development of mobile phones. One is the cancellation of wired earphones from North American customers. Many consumers may choose wireless headphones. In addition, in terms of the share of wireless headphones, the share of "apple" mobile phone owners may be less than 20%, and there will be room for development in the future. "

"Golfer's point is that airpods are still in a period of rapid growth. In the second half of next year, airpods 3 and the next year's airpods Pro 2 can contribute significantly to the growth. In the process of starting VR business, it is expected that a certain scale market will be formed in 2-3 years. Therefore, it is mainly to buy short-term TWS earphones, and the certainty of growth and long-term VR will provide a new round of growth momentum." Said the private-equity source.

In addition to the inventory crisis, the hot topic of gol shares recently is the listing of its subsidiary gol microelectronics, which may also be one of the reasons for the disturbance of valuation.

Golfer microelectronics is mainly engaged in the design, manufacture and sales of MEMS microphones, MEMS sensors, micro system modules and other related products. The products are mainly used in smart phones, smart wireless headphones, wearable products, automotive electronics and other fields. Golfer microelectronics is the only Chinese enterprise to enter the top 10 in the global MEMS industry's revenue ranking in 2019.

According to the financial report, in the first half of 2020, the operating revenue of gol microelectronics was 1.305 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 99 million yuan. Over the same period, golfer achieved a total revenue of 15.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 781 million yuan.

Golfer said the spin off was based on the long-term development of the microelectronics business. This part of the business has been relatively smooth, and it is expected to be better recognized by the market after the split listing, which is conducive to the introduction of strategic resources and better equity incentive, so as to promote the business development. After the separation of microelectronics business, the company will continue to retain control and conduct financial consolidation.

But the market has a different interpretation of this. A number of investors asked questions on the interactive platform, worried that the spin off would affect the performance of the parent company.

"The spin off is helpful for financing. The customer's view has no impact on the parent company's valuation. This part of the gain may be considered when the market environment is good, and certainly not at this stage." According to the aforementioned private investors.