Chemical Fiber Industry In The First Three Years

Since 2022, the chemical fiber industry has been operating under pressure in the face of complex and severe domestic and foreign situations and multiple factors. Under the pressure of high inventory and weak demand, the average operating load of chemical fiber industry is significantly lower than that of 2021, and the pressure of industry profit is more prominent. Looking forward to the whole year, all kinds of uncertain factors still exist. However, under the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" in the central economic work, the operating environment of the textile and chemical fiber industry will generally tend to be stable, and the space for the production and operation of the chemical fiber industry to continue to decline is limited.

　 I. Basic Situation of industry operation

(1) production and marketing

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the chemical fiber output from January to September in 2022 is 33.67 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.32%, and the decline rate is 0.84 percentage points narrower than that from January to August.

From the perspective of industry operating load and inventory, since 2022, the overall operating load of chemical fiber industry is weaker than that of the same period of last year, the pressure of production and sales increases, and the inventory of some products remains high. There were two waves of obvious decline in the operating rate of the industry. One was in March and April, with epidemic outbreaks in many places, especially in Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta, which mainly reflected in the demand for logistics transportation and internal circulation consumption; The first was in July and August. In the traditional off-season, faced with the pressure of high inventory and weak demand, combined with high-temperature power rationing in some regions, the operating rate of chemical fiber industry decreased significantly again.

Since September, it has entered the traditional peak season of "gold, silver and ten". At the same time, the high temperature has gradually faded, the power restriction measures have been relaxed and cancelled, the downstream demand has improved, and the overall operating rate of the chemical fiber industry has risen and the inventory has decreased. By the end of October, the average load of direct spinning polyester filament industry was about 73%, which was 4% higher than that in August, and the inventory decreased slightly compared with August, but there was no substantial improvement; The average load of nylon industry reached 75%, 13 points higher than the low point in August, and the average load of spandex industry reached 83%, which was more than 30 points higher than the low point in August. Meanwhile, the inventory also decreased significantly, but it was still at a high level.

　　 （2） Market price

Since the beginning of this year, the high crude oil price fluctuation has seriously affected the chemical fiber market. In the first half of the year, crude oil prices rose in shock, with the highest increase of more than 60%, which greatly increased the raw material cost and energy cost of the chemical fiber industry, squeezed the profits of enterprises and occupied a large amount of working capital; At the beginning of the year, chemical fiber prices fell sharply, but the price of crude oil fell sharply at the beginning of the year, while the price of crude oil fell sharply. At the same time, the price of crude oil fell sharply, which made it more difficult for enterprises to support the market. The price increase of fiber is far less than that of PTA, which is the largest proportion of polyester. Therefore, although the price rises, the benefit is seriously compressed.

　　 （3） Import and export

According to the statistics of China Customs, the total import volume of main chemical fiber products decreased by 39.97% from January to September; The export increased by 8.90% year on year, 1.6% higher than the average annual growth rate (7.3%) since the 13th five year plan (2015). Under this difficult situation in 2022, the growth of chemical fiber export reflects the increase of international market demand and the improvement of the competitiveness of China's chemical fiber products. In addition, the export performance of polyester bottle flakes in the past two years has been brilliant. In 2021, the export volume increased by 36% on a year-on-year basis. From January to September in 2022, the growth rate continued to increase by 54.18%, 9.18 percentage points higher than that from January to June.

　　 （4） Terminal market

In the third quarter, with the steady growth of the country and the promotion of consumption policy, the domestic sales of textiles and clothing showed a trend of improvement and improvement. Since June, the index growth rate has gradually rebounded. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear and textiles above the quota decreased by 4% year-on-year, 2.5% lower than that in the first half of the year. Online retail channels maintained a steady growth. In the first three quarters, the retail sales of online wear goods increased by 4.7% year-on-year, 2.3 percentage points faster than that in the first half of the year.

In terms of foreign demand, the textile industry's export growth was good, and the total export volume reached a record high. According to China Customs data, China's textile and garment exports totaled US $248.35 billion in the first three quarters, up 9.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 3.6 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year. Among the major categories of products, the export volume of textiles was 114.33 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year; The export volume of clothing was 134.02 billion US dollars, up 9.4% year on year. Among the main export markets, China's textile and clothing exports to the United States, the European Union and Japan increased by 2.4%, 9.5% and 2% respectively, and the export volume to the markets along the "belt and road" and RCEP trading partners increased by 17.7% and 15.6% respectively.

　　 （5） Economic benefits

Since 2022, the economic operation pressure of the chemical fiber industry is great. At the same time, due to the high base in 2021, the economic benefit index decreases significantly year on year. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the business income of chemical fiber industry from January to September was 810.9 billion yuan, an increase of 7.69% year-on-year; Operating costs increased by 13.64% year-on-year, 5.95 percentage points higher than that of revenue growth; The total profit decreased by 17.742 billion yuan on a year-on-year basis; The profit margin of revenue was 2.18%; The loss of the industry reached 35.09%, and the loss of loss making enterprises increased by 144.91% year on year.

　　 （6） Investment in fixed assets

The fixed assets investment of chemical fiber industry increased steadily. According to the data of National Bureau of statistics, the fixed assets investment of chemical fiber industry increased by 32.0% from January to September, which was basically the same as that of 2021. The new production capacity was still dominated by leading enterprises.

　 2. Outlook for 2022

From the cost side, the international oil price has recovered to the level at the beginning of the year at the end of September, but it is still running at a high level compared with previous years. It is estimated that in the fourth quarter, under the background of economic downturn and deepening inflation, the possibility of international oil price maintaining horizontal volatility is high, and the fluctuation range of rise and fall will be weakened compared with the previous three quarters, This is conducive to the stable operation of the chemical fiber market.

From the demand side, although the constraints such as limited consumption scenarios and insufficient consumer confidence caused by the epidemic are difficult to be completely eliminated in a short period of time, China's economy has stabilized and rebounded in a relatively short period of time in the face of repeated outbreaks, showing strong resilience and huge potential. On October 26, the executive meeting of the State Council injected another shot of strength into the steady economic growth. The meeting deployed a package of policies and successive measures to continuously implement the stable economy, so as to further stabilize and improve the economy. With the accumulation of positive factors, it is conducive to further smooth the circulation of the industrial chain based on the domestic demand of the textile industry, and strengthen the confidence of the industry development.

Looking forward to the whole year, it is expected that the operation pressure of the chemical fiber industry is still large, but with the further implementation of policies and measures, it will bring more positive impact on the smooth operation of the chemical fiber industry. From the data of the whole year, the output of chemical fiber is expected to be roughly the same as that of the previous year; The operating income of chemical fiber industry is still expected to show a positive growth trend year on year, and the overall profit level is expected to improve compared with the previous three quarters.

China's new journey of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way has started. The victory of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has provided an action guide for the high-quality development of the textile industry. As the core support for the stable development and continuous innovation of the textile industry chain, the international competitive advantage industry and the important component of the new material industry, the high-quality development of the industry resonates with the Chinese dream, the rejuvenation dream and the dream of strengthening the country. It is an important participant and practitioner of Chinese modernization.

Every enterprise is indispensable to the high quality development of chemical fiber industry. In the current complex and severe situation at home and abroad, enterprises should strengthen confidence, guard against risks and cultivate internal skills, and contribute to the smooth operation of the industry.

(source: China Chemical Fiber Industry Association)