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Expert Analysis: What Are The "Worries And Happiness" In The Cotton Market?

2010/9/7 16:25:00 87

2009/10 whole year

Cotton market

The trend can be said to be unexpected.

After entering 2010, this situation began to reverse. Seed cotton purchase and spot market were high and low, and the whole market was in a weak state of consolidation.

Now let's take a look at what kind of "worry and happiness" on the cotton market in 1 - June.

Market Review

The cotton spot market in January was relatively light, but the price of the spot market rose slightly after the replenishment of the textile industry before the end of the textile market, and the selling price of the lint fell at the end of the whole market. The price at the end of the month was basically maintained at 14900-15000 yuan per ton, which was basically unchanged compared with the end of last month.

As far as cotton business enterprises are concerned, due to the pressure of repayment of loans from some enterprises at the end of the year, they have to actively ship and return funds to repay loans.

In addition, domestic and foreign futures market continued to decline, cotton storage enterprises began to differentiate, part of the market is still optimistic about the future, cotton prices to be high; and the other part of the market risk is considered to increase, cotton enterprises have also taken measures to speed up sales.

In February,

Cotton market

Reversing the decline in January, before and after the Spring Festival, in the international cotton market,

spot price

With the sharp rise of both companies, the domestic cotton market has also gone out of the market. However, the cotton trade is generally relatively mild in the light of festivals.

As in the year round, the acquisition of cotton has been greatly reduced, and the amount of resources on the market has been further reduced.

As far as Shandong is concerned, by the end of February, the cotton seed sale rate in the whole province was around 90%, and the remaining resources were basically concentrated in the areas where cotton was used after the holidays. The acquisition work had stagnated for a week before the end of the holiday. Most of the enterprises had not yet acquired the stock after the end of the month, and the number of acquired enterprises was limited.

Entering the March, with the large scale start up of textile enterprises, the purchasing intention of cotton increased, the speed of Sinop cotton pportation was slow, and domestic cotton supply was temporarily tight.

In the same period, the international market prices continued to rise, driving domestic cotton prices to accelerate, up to around 1000 yuan.

In the the Yellow River Valley alone, the purchase price has also risen, driven by the selling price.

Although most cotton growers have been sold out and the price continues to rise, their confidence in the market has been enhanced. In addition, the cotton planting intention of cotton growers in some areas has increased slightly compared with that in February.

However, the state's support for grain has been further increased, the comparative efficiency of cotton is relatively low, the area recovery is limited, and the overall level is expected to increase slightly.

However, due to the low temperature in late March, frost and gale were also seen in some areas. In 2010, the emergence and emergence of cotton seedlings were later than usual, and the seedling condition would also be affected.