From 1 To March, The Market Of Raw Materials For Textile Upstream Was "Uneasy".

In the first quarter of 2011, Textile raw materials The trend of high position has become the focus of the market. Who dares say that high places are not high-risk?

On the eve of the Spring Festival, the parties are generally optimistic about the year after that. Quotation Most domestic textile enterprises have high enthusiasm for stocking. The price of textile raw materials, led by cotton, has been rising all the time. But after the Spring Festival, the international situation is unstable and domestic inflation is high. The textile raw material market has regained consciousness of risk and the rational thinking has returned to normal.

cotton Price As a result, the cotton merchants in tun cotton have shrivelled, and the staple fibers such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber and so on have also gone from bad to worse. With the end of the boom era, the flourishing situation became a "residual crisis". Many kinds of industry inventory in 2011 was far more than that in the same period in 2010. Heavy inventory pressure and financial pressure make the industry lament that "this spring is a bit cold".

The main reason is that demand is not strong enough. When the price of energy and raw materials increased, the cost of labor increased and the monetary policy continued to tighten, China's textile industry was "very bad money" in the first quarter of 2011. Due to the tight funding chain, the textile industry has been shrinking, the traditional production cycle has been disrupted and the number of single stockings has been greatly reduced.

February, China logistics and Purchase The Federation's survey shows that China's textile industry PMI index has been below 50% for 4 consecutive months, while China's overall economy has been in over 50% expansion for the same period.

Customs data show that China's textile export growth has dropped significantly. In 1-2, China's textile and clothing exports totaled US $32 billion 900 million, with a growth rate of 13.7%, down 16 percentage points from 2010. After experiencing a super high speed of 38.8% growth in January, February pulled back to calmness at a rate of -17% growth. In 1-2, the export of clothing and accessories in China increased by 9.5% compared to the same period last year, and the export growth rate in February dropped by 20%.

Although April and May is the traditional demand season, the "raw ice" in the textile raw material market will also be thawed. However, under the background of slow recovery and full of changes in the global economy, the prospects for textile exports are unpredictable. International financial market and commodity market price fluctuation, international situation frequent turbulence, European sovereign debt crisis continues to spread, Japan's earthquake has increased the impact on the global economy, these all constitute uncertain factors.

It is gratifying that domestic demand is still the main economic support for the textile industry. Statistics show that the total retail sales of textile and clothing consumer goods increased by 22% in 1-2 months, while the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society increased by 16%. The retail sales of 3000 garment retail enterprises monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 34%. Of course, the fast growing domestic demand market is also facing the challenge of urban development.

When demand subjects are embedded in a macro situation, competition and competition between them will hardly make the stalemate fly for a while.

Barometer of upstream textile raw material price index for the first quarter of 2011

　 In the first quarter

Cotton --

Accidents continue to fall in peak season

Hopping is expected to rebound

In the context of tight global cotton supply, the possibility of a sharp decline in cotton is decreasing. With the arrival of the new season sowing period and the gradual improvement of domestic cotton related system, the cotton prices in the following market will be reduced with limited space and are expected to rebound steadily.

In the first quarter of 2011, cotton prices showed a trend of high and broad amplitude. But relative to the crazy market in 2010, the futures market in 2011 may be described as "calm down", and the cotton spot market is also interpreting the "ice and fire double" which is completely opposite to 2010. {page_break}

In January, cotton prices continued to rise in the domestic market under the influence of the warming up of textile enterprises before the Spring Festival and the high cotton prices in the international market. As of January 31st, China's cotton price index (CCIndex328) was 28682 yuan / ton, up 4.16%, up 92.5% over the same period last year. With the steady rise of the domestic spot market and the push of funds, Zheng cotton 1109 contracts have gone up strongly, breaking through the 30000 major points and rapidly breaking through 31000 and 32000, which has the possibility of striking ahead.

During the spring, the international cotton futures and spot prices rose sharply, driving the domestic market bullish atmosphere rapidly warming, cotton spot prices once again rose to 30000 yuan / ton above. The average monthly price of China's cotton price index (CCIndex328) in February was 29795 yuan / ton, up 1842 yuan / ton, or 6.6%, up 14890 yuan / ton, or nearly 100%. Because of the high cotton prices, textile enterprises are cautious in purchasing, because high-grade cotton is relatively scarce, and sales are flourishing, while low grade cotton is relatively light. In February, Zheng cotton index advanced and suppressed, first rushed to 33306 yuan / ton, in the middle of the spot support margin is limited, started to fall, the index value from high point 33306 yuan / ton to 28990 yuan / ton, adjustment 12.96%.

In March, Zheng cotton showed a downward trend. In March 30th, the eight ministries and commissions of the state promulgated the plan for the temporary storage and purchase of cotton in 2011, giving the market price of 19800 yuan / ton, trying to protect the cotton farmers' income under the increase of cotton planting area. According to this news, the cotton market continued to dive slightly to the end of the main 1109 down 475 yuan / ton closed at 28400 yuan / ton. It was the selling season, but cotton prices unexpectedly dropped continuously, and the whole market was shrouded in haze.

The industry believes that the cold sale of cotton is mainly due to high cotton prices and other high costs, which can not afford downstream businesses. However, textile enterprises will have demand in May and June. If the market can be reactivated, cotton prices will rebound again.

In the first quarter, the overall trend of cotton exports was stronger than the domestic market.

In January, the US economic data gradually improved, and the Fed's position would continue to maintain low interest rates for a long time to come. Meanwhile, the European debt crisis eased, and the US dollar slipped again after a brief rise, supporting the growth of commodities. That month, New York cotton futures contract settlement price of March 151.72 cents / pound, up 8.09 cents / pound from last month, or 5.6%. The import price of China's main port for import cotton is 30203 yuan / ton based on 1% tariff, up 1128 yuan / ton, or 3.9%, and 30478 yuan / ton according to sliding tax, up 1117 yuan per ton, or 3.8%.

In February, the United States and cotton were strong, weak and volatile. Driven by the rise in global agricultural prices, the US cotton index rose from 152.96 cents per pound at the beginning of the month to 186.70 cents / pound on the 18 day, or 22.06%. After the crash, the callback began, callback to low 152.73 cents / pound, callback range 18.19%. In February, the average price of cotton futures contracts in the ICE period was 185.39 cents / pound, up 4290 points from January, and the average price of China's cotton imports index was 214.67 cents / pound, up 43.79 cents / pound compared with January.

In March, the US cotton main contract was successfully transferred to the May delivery agreement. In the process of changing the month, the US cotton export has been suspended many times due to the signing of the US cotton export contract and the settlement price, but the overall operation is still in the range of 180-220 cents / pound. By the end of March 31st, US cotton futures rose 38.3% in the first quarter, the best commodities since 2010.

Strong and difficult in the first quarter

Polyester staple fiber --

Some enterprises stock up to ten thousand tons.

Terminal demand is flagging.

The overall capacity of polyester staple fiber and recycled polyester staple fiber expanded in 2011.