Retail Bottom Lingering Brand Clothing Company Steady Rebound Slightly

< p > main data points: in July, hundreds of retail enterprises < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > clothing < /a > retail sales and retail sales grew to 5.1% and 5% respectively year-on-year, while retail sales of jewelry rose to 33% year-on-year; a target= "_blank" href= "_blank" > textile and apparel exports increased to 20% and 14% respectively.

In August, the average gold price at home and abroad rebounded by 4% and 5% respectively, and the average price of domestic cotton fell by 0.4%. The average price of the outer cotton rose by 0.1%, and the price of cotton inside and outside was 3% to nearly 4000 yuan / ton.

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< p > A stock company tracking: as consumption has not yet seen the trend of recovery, retail sales returned to the same level in May as expected in July, and retail sales in August are also not significantly recovered.

朗姿:7月销售总体不错，比6月要好，但8月预计不如7月;探路者:7月终端销售基本与前两个月相当，直营约有35-40%的增长;罗莱:7月零售和加盟发货的情况和前期差不多，直营略有增长;美邦:7月整体情况与前期基本一致，未有改善，直营端销售下降;森马:7月终端销售与之前差不多，公司预计逐步走出低谷;搜于特:今年夏装发货延后，截至8月中旬仍略有剩余，预计8月底左右夏装才能基本完成发货(往年在6月底);星期六:7月压力仍较大，上半年老品牌同比增长8%，Q2较Q1有较明显放缓;奥康:Q2表现明显差于Q1，7月来不利天气对终端也有影响，终端表现仍未有起色;鲁泰:目前订单情况良好，色织和衬衫在手订单分别排至11月和12月。

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Baozi, Anli Fang, China's a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > clothing, /a, Goldlion inland, Hendry inland, XTEP, trend inland, Taifeng brand bed income increased by 9%, 11%, -6%, -10%, 1%, -20%, -36% and 5% respectively; Changxin, Zhou Shengsheng mainland, Li Bang mainland, BELLE "-10%", "P", "target=", "BELLE", "BELLE", "Daphne" and "Daphne" core brands respectively increased their single digit, 31%, bit, low, single digit, 7%, and low single digit; Daphne 7 and August terminals were still weak; < p > Hong Kong stocks and overseas companies: first half year

13Q2UrbanOutfitters, Express, ANN, Chico 's, Children' sPlace, RossStores, GAP, Guess, A&F, A&E, and store increased by 9%, 6%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 5%, respectively, 27%, and 22% respectively.

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< p > trend review: this year, the industry's ranking rose slightly, but it won the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and the brand category generally lost a lot. (fuanna's smaller decline, Meng Jie, Lao Fengxiang and Semir slightly Rose), and some of the manufacturing categories increased considerably (Lutai and Huafu).

8 in the second half of the month, the industry rose earlier and outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Brand differentiation (old Feng Xiang and Meng Jie LED) and manufacturing (Jia Linjie and Dang Yang LED) were highly differentiated; H-share brand (sports and jewellery) and manufacturing (Yuyuan and Shenzhou were better) also fell.

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< p > Investment Strategy: as we have previously judged, the retail price of Brand Company has rebounded slightly in the 7 and August, as the industry retails at the bottom.

At present, 14 years' spring and summer orders will be held in various companies. We have always judged that although the retail sales in the second half of the year can not be expected to recover much, the order will be expected to be low and volatile. It will not appear as a sharp drop or fall in the same way as the first 2 orders. The overall trend may show a trend of bottom fluctuation. Therefore, we believe that the valuation risks of quality Brand Company are relatively controllable under this background.

Our preference is for enterprises with strong channel control, good retailing ability, relatively controllable management and actively deploying the strategy of electricity supplier, such as fuanna, Rand and Pathfinder, who can buy on the low side. Before the new cotton price policy comes out, cotton prices will become stable in the whole, and the fundamentals of cotton enterprises in the second half of the year will continue to improve and the fundamentals are not very risky. However, the following trend will mainly observe the new cotton policy effect and the changing factors of cotton price expectation next year. If the risk of new cotton price policy is not large, there may still be some investment opportunities associated with the release of performance, such as Lu Tai, Hua Fu and Bailong.

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