Tan Yaling: The "Invisible Crisis" Of The Yen'S Depreciation Is Even Bigger.

Yen depreciation What's the purpose of this? What's the impact on China's economy? What countermeasures should China take? For this, the peninsula Metropolis Daily reporter interviewed Ms. Tan Yaling, senior researcher of Bank of China and Dean of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute. In her view, the strategy of devaluation of the yen is greater for China's "invisible crisis", and we need to be vigilant against the depreciation of the yen against the RMB exchange rate.

Reporter: what is the purpose of the continued depreciation of the Japanese yen?

Tan Yaling: first of all, Japan needs its own interests, in order to make itself internal. economic interest Maximization. No matter how the times change, no matter how the Japanese economy is transformed, the basic principle of exchange rate acting on exports remains unchanged, that is, currency appreciation and competitiveness. The yen exchange rate is based on the simplest reason to adopt a depreciation strategy to achieve economic self-help. The Andouble Administration tried to increase the export competitiveness through the devaluation of the yen, making the three carriages of the national economy as fast as possible. Of course, this is also related to the strategic plot echoed by Japan and the United States.

　 Reporter: what's the impact on China's economy and trade, including RMB?

Tan Yaling: first of all, it is the impact on China's trade. The depreciation of the Japanese yen will undoubtedly exacerbate the competitiveness and export advantages of the yen products, and even directly impact the export mix of the Asian market, increasing the destructive and disturbing effects on the external environment of China's trade. But the "invisible crisis" is that the depreciation of the yen will impact the RMB exchange rate, which is an indirect but serious problem. Now our RMB exchange rate is facing two sides. On the one hand, I will continue to be subject to the US dollar exchange rate. I expect that even if the depreciation of the US dollar continues in the year, the appreciation of our RMB will not continue. In the future, the appreciation of the RMB will be limited and the pressure of depreciation will be enormous.

　 Reporter: China is Japan What will be the impact of the largest creditor country?

Tan Yaling: of course, it has a great impact. In those days, the United States used Japanese yen to revalue Japan to fight against Japan. Now Japan takes the same way to deal with the external economy. The most important thing is China. For example, assuming that China bought 1 trillion yen of Japanese government bonds (actually more than 1), assuming that 1 yen would be equivalent to 10 yuan, Japan owed us one hundred thousand billion yuan. As a result, the Japanese yen continues to depreciate, so the yen becomes 8 yuan, and the arrears become eight trillion yuan. In fact, our money has shrunk. In addition to the impact of trade channels, Japan's extreme monetary easing policy will also affect China through cross-border flows of capital, which will continue to push up asset bubbles in China.

　　 Reporter: what countermeasures should China take to deal with it?

Tan Yaling: the world is changing, the international monetary structure is changing, and the connotation of Japanese yen depreciation is changing. This is an observation and reflection perspective to see the devaluation of Japanese yen. In particular, the speculative arbitrage of RMB will increase. The short-term, hasty and impatience of the market in psychology and strategy will be very prominent, which will have great interference and impact on economic confidence and market technology. Therefore, from the perspective of trade or exchange rate, we have great risks and deserve great attention. Now we must have long-term considerations and precise definitions, and take effective measures to deal with them.