Is The RMB Exchange Rate Reentering The Appreciation Track?

< p > a large number of investment institutions believe that under the favorable policies recently introduced by the domestic government to promote steady growth measures, the pressure of RMB appreciation will be repeated.

They generally believe that Reuters's survey of 30 institutions shows that these institutions generally expect the RMB exchange rate to appreciate in the two quarter.

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< p > many institutions at home and abroad believe that the RMB exchange rate will rise again. First, the fundamentals of the domestic economy will stabilize and improve from the two quarter of this year.

Two, the low cost of financing in the international market still has considerable attraction for domestic enterprises.

The three is the stability of the RMB exchange rate after the withdrawal of the US QE, which makes people think that the RMB exchange rate is a trend.

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< p > but will the RMB exchange rate go back to the track of unilateral appreciation? The answer is No.

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< p > because for the exchange rate changes of a country's currency, although the fundamentals of the market are quite important, it must be built on the premise of the complete marketization of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. If the marketization degree of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is low, the market's basic impact on the RMB exchange rate change is limited.

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Moreover, in the case of "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp "international currency < /a" under the US dollar dominated by credit currency and currency exchange rate derivatives, under the condition that RMB can not be freely convertible, it is decided that the exchange rate of a country's currency has more and more complicated factors, and the equilibrium price of the RMB exchange rate can not be formed through the fundamentals of the market. P

In particular, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > exchange rate < /a > changes relate to the adjustment of interests between countries. If the RMB exchange rate can not be established through the market way to establish its equilibrium price, then the government will stand more in the national interest angle to dominate the RMB exchange rate change, rather than the prediction by international agencies.

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< p > If a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp" > RMB < /a > re entering the track of unilateral appreciation, China will face a series of serious economic problems.

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< p > first, the marketization reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism proposed in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee may be abruptly interrupted.

Because if the price of the RMB exchange rate is only unilateral appreciation rather than fluctuation, then it can not form an effective market supply and demand relationship according to the needs of the real economy.

Especially when the RMB exchange rate is only an arbitrage tool for investors, the distortion of the price mechanism of the RMB exchange rate is inevitable.

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< p > two is that if the international hot money is still pouring into the Chinese market as much as 2013, it will not only abrupt interruption of China's real estate market that is undergoing periodic adjustment, but also make China's real estate bubble blow up again, and the systemic risks and regional risks of the domestic financial market will further increase.

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< p > three is not conducive to the adjustment of domestic industrial structure and the problem of excess capacity.

When a large number of international hot money is pouring into the Chinese real estate market, the real estate problem of the domestic economy will further deteriorate, and some of the excess capacity that is being adjusted will revive again.

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< p > four will increase the burden of domestic export enterprises and seriously hamper the internationalization of RMB.

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In this case, the central bank will not be affected by the prediction of the international financial institutions. Instead, it should take the change of the RMB exchange rate from the perspective of national interests to ensure that the marketization reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism can proceed smoothly. P

Therefore, this year's RMB exchange rate will not re-enter the orbit of unilateral appreciation, and the market and the public should pay close attention to this.

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