PTA Is Expected To Oscillate In The Short Term Or Low.

< p > < strong > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > PX < /a > prices will return to the downward trend < /strong > /p >

< p > 5 - July, the new PX installations in Asia will be put into operation. The 920 thousand ton aromatics plant in India OMPL is expected to commercialize operation in late May or early June. SK global a href= //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp > chemical > /a is expected to launch 3 sets of PX installations with a total capacity of 3 million 100 thousand tons in 6 July. In May, Japan plans to shut down 180 thousand tons and 420 thousand tons PX installations on deer island, while the 420 thousand ton plant in the big division will also synchronously stop. However, it is hard to check the impact of new production capacity on the market.

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< p > Import and export, the cumulative import volume of PX from 1 to March was 2 million 473 thousand tons, an increase of 218 thousand and 100 tons compared with that of last year, an increase of 9.67%, and PX social stocks kept rising.

In view of this, under the influence of multiple negative factors such as the high inventory of PX society, the great release of PX's new capacity in Asia and the continuous failure of ACP negotiations, the future pessimism will start to ferment, and the PX price will go back to the downtrend.

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< p > < strong > terminal demand is difficult to improve. < /strong > < /p >

< p > two quarter PTA ushered in the new a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > production capacity < /a > peak period. As of now, the new equipment of the new Xiang Lu Petrochemical 1 million 500 thousand ton has been officially produced, Yisheng Ningbo 2 million 200 thousand tons PTA device is running at full capacity, and there are 4 million 500 thousand tons of PTA capacity to go into operation in the near future.

By the end of April, the total volume of PTA produced by CCF in China's latest statistics was 36 million 980 thousand tons, and the total production capacity of polyester was 43 million 50 thousand tons. When the downstream polyester operation rate reached 100%, the corresponding PTA demand was just matched with the current PTA production capacity.

But according to the current polyester operating rate of 80%, the excess capacity of PTA theory is 7 million 360 thousand tons.

In addition, the new PTA production capacity in the future is much larger than that of new polyester production, which is bound to bring substantial pressure to the market.

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< p > in recent years, textile enterprises have difficulty in financing and high financing cost. Some textile enterprises have great pressure to withdraw funds, and many reasons lead to the loss of Chinese textile enterprises.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of customs, from 1 to March, China's textile and apparel exports totaled US $58 billion 130 million, an increase of US $241 million over the same period last year, an increase of 0.42% over the same period last year.

The sharp depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is a key factor in the export rebound. Since the beginning of this year, the depreciation of the RMB has depreciated by 3.12%, which is more than the 2.9% increase last year, to a certain extent, stimulating exports.

However, the growth rate was reduced by 15.31 percentage points compared with the same period last year, due to external demand and domestic demand.

Although exports have rebounded sharply, they are still lower than market expectations, reflecting the fact that China's export situation is still grim. We will wait for some positive policies to stabilize the economy and maintain steady economic growth through improving exports.

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Generally speaking, China's economy is still not optimistic, the demand for commodities has dropped significantly. At present, the PTA fundamentals are mainly empty. Upstream PX high inventory and the three quarter of the new production capacity's massive investment are weakening the PTA cost support.

At the same time, the new production capacity of PTA in the two quarter has brought great psychological pressure to the market. The textile demand in the downstream terminal has not changed much, indicating that the export situation is extremely grim.

It is predicted that in the short term, PTA will oscillate at low level, with little space above.

In the medium to long term, PTA is still in a weak position, and it can rebound and sell short.

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