PTA Costs Rise And Prices Rise.

Entering the "golden nine silver ten" traditional peak season, the downstream polyester start to pick up. It is expected that the latter will enter a pattern of wide supply and demand balance. Overnight crude oil rebounded sharply, driving PTA costs higher.

Form a certain driving force.

Affected by the recent news of pet and PTA factory parking and logistics outages, polyester sales were boosted by the downstream factories in advance, and the centre of gravity of the PTA market edged up slightly with futures in September 21st. The spot offer base was at 165-170 yuan / ton, and the actual negotiation was near 4610-4620 yuan / ton; the warehouse receipt was 30 yuan / ton; the center of the PTA market in the afternoon fell slightly behind the futures market, and the spot paction was 4562-4580 yuan / ton, and the warehouse receipt was negotiated at 4610-4620 yuan / ton; the external market continued to shake.

The shipping offer is near $610 / tonne, and the estimate is expected to remain at US $605-608 / ton.

PTA device: Ningbo MITSUBISHI 700 thousand tons

The capacity plant stopped in September 17th for a month or so. The Hon Bang Petrochemical 600 thousand ton capacity plant had been broken down in September 14th and had been restarted for 2-3 days. It has not been restarted yet. The 400 thousand ton capacity of Shanghai petrochemical plant has been reopened at the end of September 15th, and has been successfully restarted. Ningbo's 1 million 200 thousand ton production capacity device was restarted in September 14th; Hengli set up a 2 million 200 thousand ton production capacity device near September 14th; the Jiaxing Petrochemical Company had resumed normal production on the 19 th day after the failure of the 1 million 500 thousand ton capacity production device of Jiaxing Petrochemical Company, and the load gradually increased; the Honggang Petrochemical Company's 1 million 500 thousand ton capacity unit is still being overhauled, and is expected to be restarted near September 21st this week.

Downstream polyester, the end of G20 has been more than two weeks. Besides Xiaoshan Rui Cheng Hui and Shaoxing Hai Fu device has not been restarted, the rest of G20 parking (excluding parking devices before G20) has been restarted, and the load has basically increased to the level before the Mid Autumn Festival.

The real time operating rate has risen to around 80% (capacity is calculated by 47 million 660 thousand tons). This week's Polyester real time operation rate is expected to rise to 82-83%'s pre production level.

The near future

The work resumed, but the enthusiasm of the overall inquiry was not high, and the overall market negotiation situation was general.

Galaxy futures analyst Fang Huiling said recently that the production profit of the upstream PX side was compressed, and the price difference between PXCFR and naphtha in China fell to 398 US dollars / ton. Because of the profit of the PX link, the processing fee of PTA rose to nearly 500 yuan / ton on the 20 day. Based on the current mainstream thinking of factory owners controlling cash flow in the industry to eliminate small and medium capacity, with the pickup of processing fees, the futures market's hedging disk will increase.

In addition, in mid September, a large number of warehouse receipts were cancelled and entered the spot market, some of which would be re delivered through replacements, and to some extent increased the hedging pressure on futures. TA1701 contracts were expected to reduce the spot premium and the period price would be suppressed.

At present, confidence in the downstream polyester market is also underperforming. Textile enterprises are cautious about raw material procurement, and the recent production and marketing are slack, and the downstream weakness also undermines the PTA price.

However, Fang Huiling also said that polyester load has now picked up more than 8 percent, and the downstream needs stability. In addition, the PX capacity in the upper reaches of Asia is tight, the margins of the PX links are limited, the space under the international oil price is not large, and the PTA price is expected to be difficult to fall. Short-term support is expected to sustain the weak shocks along the regional scale, and the support level below the 4700 line will be tested.