Jin Nine Silver Ten Is Now Facing PTA Rebound?

In the end of the cost side of the trend of stability, the current PTA operating rate of 83.06%, the supply side is relatively adequate, the downstream polyester with some of the device load increase, started to rise to 85.86%, demand side support slightly.

In half a month, PTA is about to enter the legendary "Kim Gu", but in the terminal market is slightly less warm, Jin, nine silver ten can come as scheduled?

Average price of PTA in internal market

Under the air fermentation, the cost ends pressure.

Due to the suppression of the Sino US trade situation, the crude oil terminal in recent years looked starry and gloomy, and the market risk aversion spread. After this week's macro profit, oil prices are showing signs of warmer rebound. In addition, PX prices continue to be under pressure when new installations are put into operation and load increases.

Installation: Liaoning petrochemical and Fuhua group PX plant has been driving; new capacity: Nakawa Kojun and Hainan refining and chemical plant PX plan postponed until 9 months driving. Under the weakness of crude oil prices, it is predicted that the PX price center will tend to be weak and PTA cost side support will be weak.

Under the implementation of maintenance, the supply side is adequate.

Although PTA has announced a number of device maintenance plans, the repair plan for the large plant has not yet been fully implemented, and its maintenance is expected to be weak. At present, only 2 million 200 thousand tons / year maintenance and repair plan of Hengli Petrochemical Company is available. However, Ningbo Liwan and Yisheng Ningbo deposit are expected to restart. Therefore, the operation has been reduced to 83.3%. At the present stage, there is no possibility of accidental parking and restart.

Profit recovery, demand side improvement

Polyester demand, last week, polyester manufacturers started from 84% to 85.5%, the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms start up 9.5% to 71.5%. From a profit perspective, along with the decline of PTA, its profit quickly reacts, and the profit of industrial chain is transferred to the downstream. After the profit transfer and inventory decline, the polyester factory that has been pre maintenance has been resumed.

Meanwhile, in mid August, the new capacity of 600 thousand tonnes of tonkun and the new capacity of Yi Jin 60 thousand tons will be put into operation in the middle of August. The production base of polyester will be further improved, and the supply and demand pattern will be improved to increase the safety of the PTA market.

To sum up, PTA spot prices have dropped sharply, polyester profits have partially recovered, and downstream contradictions have been eased. In the short term, under the impetus of demand improvement, the trend of PTA or warmer running will greet the arrival of "Kim Gu". Focus on downstream demand and upstream cost dynamics. (source: Zhuo Chuang, mid founder)