In The First 2 Months, China'S Textile And Clothing Exports Dropped Nearly 20 Years Ago.

Summary of situation

From the end of January 2020 to the beginning of March, the sudden "new crown pneumonia" epidemic swept across the whole country from Wuhan, Hubei. 3 in mid month, the domestic epidemic has just eased, and the world is in the great disaster of the rapid spread of the epidemic. The United States, Italy, Spain, Iran and other countries have become the worst hit areas. As of the morning of April 8th, more than 200 countries in the world had infected cases, and the number of confirmed cases has exceeded 1 million 410 thousand cases in Beijing.

The outbreak has completely disrupted the pace of manufacturing. After the Spring Festival, the normal production and foreign trade order were in disorder. From the end of the festival to the middle of 4, the enterprises experienced a series of setbacks and attacks: after the festival, they could not resume production in time, supply shortages of epidemic prevention materials, lack of raw materials, transportation and logistics, difficulties in performance and emergency funds. With the improvement of domestic epidemic situation and the resumption of production by enterprises, the international epidemic has entered a high incidence period. The short-term demand in the international market is frozen, and the purchase intention is reduced. The export enterprises are once again faced with the plight of foreign buyers to cancel orders or delay delivery at a large scale, and the confidence of enterprises is severely suppressed. China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) was only 35.7% in 1~2 months, down 14.3 percentage points from last month, the lowest record since the data. The production index is 27.8, the new order index is 29.3, less than 30, far below the critical value of the boom. At the same time, international oil prices fell sharply, and four shares of American stocks were blown off. The financial risks caused by the uncertainty of the epidemic continued to rise, and the employment rate and consumer confidence decreased. The market was filled with pessimism, and all major financial institutions lowered the global economic and trade growth indicators.

Under the superposition of multiple factors such as the epidemic situation, Sino US economic and trade frictions, tariffs and Spring Festival holidays, the volume of foreign trade in textile and clothing decreased sharply in the first two months, mainly in the decline of exports, and imports continued to grow. In March, foreign trade enterprises to complete the backlog of orders, large volume of shipments, exports will improve in the first two months. 3 in the middle of the month, foreign orders were cancelled in large numbers and there was no sign of recovery. Foreign customers' purchase intention declined, and the order volume decreased significantly compared with the same period in previous years, which would cause long-term negative effects on exports. According to the enterprise, at present, the order is only maintained until the middle of 4, and the new order is uncertain. Exports are expected to decline sharply in the two quarter or even the three quarter beginning in April.

In order to cope with the epidemic situation, the State Council and various departments have promulgated a series of policies that benefit the enterprises and benefit the people, and escort the economy through stabilizing domestic trade, stabilizing foreign trade, stabilizing foreign investment, reducing taxes and fees, stabilizing finance and stabilizing employment. But in addition to some of the main production or production of protective clothing or masks, and the corresponding upstream raw material excipients enterprises have full orders and larger profit margins, most enterprises are faced with the cancellation or uncertainty of the original orders, production temporarily stagnate, resulting in the shortage of funds and employment decline is the most urgent problem, more policies need to focus on protecting business students. Save, let the enterprise survive first. Enterprises generally suggest that the government increase the support for the industry's capital and credit, and continue to introduce measures such as reducing taxes and lowering fees, expediting export tax rebates, and postpone payment of social security payments.

Trade data

In 2020 1~2, the total value of imports and exports of goods trade was 591 billion 990 million US dollars, down 11% compared to the same period last year. Of which, exports amounted to 292 billion 450 million US dollars, down by 17.2%; imports of US $299 billion 540 million, down by 4%, the first deficit in nearly eight years, and the adverse balance of 7 billion 100 million US dollars.

In February 2019, the trade volume of textiles and clothing decreased by 49.5%, with exports of US $5 billion, a decrease of 61.7%, and imports of US $2 billion 340 million, an increase of 58.5%. The trade surplus of that month decreased by 2 billion 660 million US dollars, down by 7 billion 350 million. In 2020 1~2, trade in textiles and clothing was 34 billion 390 million US dollars, down 17.8% compared to the same period last year. Of which, exports amounted to 30 billion 550 million US dollars, down by 19.9%; imports of US $3 billion 830 million, an increase of 4.5%, and a cumulative trade surplus of 26 billion 720 million US dollars, down 22.5%.

Trade characteristics

The import and export of textiles and clothing in 2020 1~2 showed the following characteristics:

First, affected by the epidemic, exports in February are now rare, and international donations of anti epidemic materials are boosting imports.

Affected by the "new crown pneumonia" epidemic, the export volume of textile and clothing in February was the lowest in nearly 15 years, only 5 billion US dollars. In the case of low base last year, the decline was still 62%, exceeding the 2008 financial crisis (-35.1%), a record of 25 years. Total exports in 1~2 fell by nearly 20%, and also hit the lowest level in nearly 20 years.

At the beginning of the outbreak, Japan, South Korea and other countries came to China to join hands with overseas Chinese to donate masks, protective clothing and other anti epidemic materials, which led to a rapid increase in imports in February.

Two, the export of general trade has been severely damaged, and the import and export of other materials and other donated materials from countries and international organizations has increased sharply.

In February, exports of all major trade patterns dropped significantly, accounting for 63.8% of the total trade volume of 80% of exports and a decline of more than that of processing trade (49.7%) and average value. In 1~2 months, the general trade decreased by 21.1%, and the processing trade dropped by 31%.

In February, imports rose sharply in the two trade ways of inter state and international organizations, including gratuitous aid and gift materials and other donated materials, and imports amounted to US $170 million in that month, up 20000 times over the same period last year. The main products are masks, protective clothing and surgical medical gloves, mainly from the United States, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Vietnam and other countries.

Three, the export of global markets will fall in a large scale, and the epidemic will not accelerate the transfer of industries for the time being.

In February, my textile and clothing exported to 198 countries (regions), of which 96% of the countries (regions) declined. For key export markets, the European Union, the United States, ASEAN and Japan fell by 62.1%, 69%, 55% and 64.4%, respectively, with a drop of more than half. In 1~2 months, the decline in the four markets was 14.5%, 30.4%, 17.6% and 23.7% respectively.

As the epidemic continues to spread overseas, the global economy is at a standstill. The main trading partners of our textile and garment industry, such as the European Union, the United States, the Middle East, Japan and South Korea, have seen widespread spread, and the international market environment has further deteriorated, and demand has further shrunk. In the middle of 3, major market customers began to cancel orders or delay delivery. Compared to the supply side can not resume work in time to resume production, the cancellation of orders from external demand on my exports more deadly.

In the early days of the outbreak, due to China's vigorous efforts to strengthen prevention and control, the rate of resumption of production was low, and the production and export of orders were affected. From the main market import data, we can see that the market share of Chinese products has declined significantly: in February, the proportion of US imports from China dropped rapidly to 22.8%, down 10 percentage points from the end of 2019, rising from 25.6% to 25.6% in ASEAN, and the first time in China. The Japanese market also showed the same trend. 1~2 imports from China accounted for 6.7 percentage points from the end of last year. At the same time, some foreign buyers lack confidence in China and speed up the transfer of orders outside China. It is estimated that China's market share will remain at a low level in 3 and April. However, from the following development, on the one hand, the Chinese government has taken strong measures to effectively control domestic epidemic, and has issued a helping policy to help enterprises restore production. At the end of the first quarter, more than 90% of the enterprises in the country resumed production and resumed production, and China's capacity recovered rapidly. On the one hand, the epidemic situation aggravated and spread all over the world. You can't be alone. In addition, the main buyers in Europe and the United States are too busy to reduce the volume of transactions, and the risk of order transfer decreases.

Four, in February, exports of textiles and clothing decreased by 6, and exports of protective goods were expected to grow.

In February, the export volume of all products decreased by 20%~80%, and the textiles decreased by 59.5%, of which 38.6%, 65.2% and 64.9% of major categories of yarn, fabric and household textiles decreased respectively. Clothing decreased by 63.6%, of which the export volume of large category needle and woven garments decreased by 60.8%. In 1~2 months, textiles and clothing decreased by 19.8% and 20% respectively.

From the perspective of the current epidemic situation, my main export markets are not optimistic. Export will continue to decline in the two quarter, and the decline will be further expanded. The only thing to look forward to is that as a large number of enterprises in our country are able to switch to production quickly in response to the current situation, adequate supplies of epidemic prevention materials are available for export. Foreign epidemic situation is tight, and there is a great demand for epidemic prevention materials. The United States has put masks and protective clothing into the tax exclusion list. The export of these products will peak in the March to the two quarter, and will play a weak positive role in the overall export.

Five, all provinces and cities exported in February, and 70% provinces and municipalities dropped by more than half.

In February, 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) exported negative growth, of which 22 provinces and municipalities fell by more than 50%. Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and other areas with good export momentum have not been spared. The total exports of the top five provinces and cities of Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong and Fujian have dropped by 61.5%. In 1~2 months, only Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia achieved growth, while the total export volume of the top five provinces and cities dropped by 19.6%.

Six, the import of protective materials has greatly increased imports.

A large number of imports of protective materials promoted the total import growth in the first two months. Masks, protective clothing, cotton ball swabs, rubber gloves and other textile and garment categories have been imported for about 980 million US dollars (including other products in the product tax number), an increase of 12 times.

Seven, cotton imports rebounded and domestic and foreign cotton prices fell down.

In February, out of concerns about the shortage of raw materials in the upper reaches, combined with the drop in cotton prices, a large number of enterprises imported hoarding cotton, and cotton imports rebounded sharply in that month. Imports of 264 thousand tons, an increase of 15.1%, and import prices fell 14%. 1~2 months accumulated 413 thousand tons of imports, down 19.1%, and cotton prices fell 12.6%. Brazil still occupies the status of the largest source country of imports, and US cotton imports rebounded. In the first two months, it imported 72 thousand tons from the United States, an increase of 58%.

According to the monthly report of China Cotton Association, in February, the textile enterprises delayed the resumption of work due to the new crown virus epidemic. The export of yarn, cloth and textiles and clothing decreased significantly, and the sales of cotton market basically stagnated. According to the China Cotton Association forecast, domestic cotton consumption has dropped to 7 million 820 thousand tons, down 3.1% from the same period last year, down 200 thousand tons compared with the previous period, and the import volume dropped to 1 million 880 thousand tons, down 8.3% from the same period last year, reducing 100 thousand tons compared with the previous period. Domestic and foreign cotton prices fell, the international cotton prices fell more than domestic prices, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices fluctuated significantly, and the turnover rate of cotton storage increased significantly, and the decline in commercial inventories decreased. The epidemic began to spread in foreign countries in late days, which caused a blow to the global commodity market and the international cotton price fell rapidly. At the end of the month, China's cotton price index (CCIndex3128B) was 13086 yuan / ton, down 747 yuan from the end of last month, and the monthly average price was 13418 yuan / ton, down 409 yuan, down 2082 yuan compared with the same period last year. The international cotton price has dropped sharply, and the difference between the inside and outside cotton prices has increased since last month. The price index of China's imported cotton FC Index M is 77.90 cents / pound, down 2.19 cents. The end of the month is 73.05 cents / pound, less than 7.86 cents / pound at the end of the first month, and 12406 yuan / ton under the 1% tariff, which is lower than the domestic spot 680 yuan in the same period, and the difference between the inside and outside cotton price is 787 yuan more than that at the end of last month.