Behind Guangzhou'S Crackdown On Price Hikes: At The End Of Last Year, The Real Estate Market Was "Undercurrent"

After several months of agitation in Guangzhou property market, after several chatting records of real and fake owners talking about collective price rise were exposed, the official attention and voice were welcomed.

On January 5, Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development said that in order to further strengthen the supervision of the real estate market and create a more open and transparent market environment, the housing and Construction Department of Guangzhou is carrying out in-depth special rectification actions for the order of the real estate market in accordance with the work plan, and severely crack down on illegal behaviors such as raising house prices, false housing sources, false advertisements and false sales, We will further rectify and standardize the order of the real estate market and earnestly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the people who buy houses.

Behind this announcement is that there is indeed a wave of "tail raising" in the property market of Guangzhou at the end of 2020. Whether it is first-hand or second-hand, it has gone out of the trend of rising both in quantity and price.

According to the monitoring of the Central Plains research and Development Department of Guangzhou, in 2020, the number of first-hand residential online transactions in Guangzhou was 100905, with a year-on-year increase of 27%. The average first-hand sales price was 30025 yuan / square meter, with a year-on-year increase of about 5%; the number of transactions in the second-hand market was 131009, with a year-on-year increase of 21.9%.

Affected by the market performance, Guangzhou Tianhe, Huangpu, Nansha and other parts of the local owner sentiment also fluctuated. In some of the hot-selling buildings in Tianhe District, the situation of owners' counter price frequently appears, and the intermediary also intends to push up the listing price of owners. However, it needs to be recognized that this is a partial phenomenon. The overall transaction in Guangzhou is still stable and the owners' mentality is generally rational. "Not all plates sell well and should not be over hyped." Xiao Wenxiao, chief regional analyst of Kerry Guangfo, pointed out.

Local warming of property market

It is an indisputable fact that the local property market in Guangzhou is restless.

Deng Haozhi, a real estate economist, points out that after entering may 2020, Guangzhou's new houses will gradually enter the "fast lane", and the turnover has been soaring all the way, with a month on month growth rate of 10 months. Among them, since September, the single month turnover has exceeded 10000 units. In December, it set a historical record of 17243 units in a single month; the second-hand housing market was also hot. Since July 2020, the monthly turnover of second-hand houses in Guangzhou has exceeded 10000 sets.

From the perspective of housing price performance, the average price of second-hand housing online in Guangzhou in 2020 is 28815 yuan / m2, up 7.8% year-on-year. From the perspective of the average price of online signings in each district, the increase was obvious, mainly concentrated in Tianhe, Haizhu, Yuexiu and other hot areas, with increases of 15.5%, 9.0% and 8.7% respectively. In addition, the average price of online signings in Zengcheng District fell instead of rising, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%.

In fact, Guangzhou property market this wave of local market is generally expected.

Xiao Wenxiao analyzed that the reason why the Guangzhou market is getting warmer is that since 2020, Guangzhou has introduced many positive policies around the introduction of talents. The previously repressed demand of Guangzhou property market has been released, and new demand has been constantly pouring in, which has led to the recovery of property market demand. In addition, as the core city of the first tier city and Dawan District, Guangzhou's residential value and investment value have been recognized continuously Yes.

This is indeed the basic factor of market change. Moreover, some hot spots in Guangzhou attract not only potential customers from Guangzhou, but also some customers from Shenzhen. Tianhe District, Huangpu District and Nansha District are the most concerned areas. A client from Shenzhen told the 21st century economic report that Guangzhou is developing eastward, and the industry and city appearance of Huangpu make them see the shadow of Shenzhen, which makes them firmly optimistic.

The houses in the east of Guangzhou do not worry about selling. The first-hand houses in hot spots need to be robbed. Chen Ming has been looking at the real estate in Guangzhou for a long time, intending to buy the property at the junction of Tianhe and Huangpu. Poly Tianhui, Fuyi Huating and Vanke City Light are all within the scope of his plan. He was originally a Buddhist, but when he was sold out at the beginning of the market and he did not choose the right house, his mentality changed and he bought a house in a hurry when another building opened.

If this is the case, the mentality of second-hand owners has also become tough. Lin Yuan plans to start a hot spot in Tianhe District recently, but he has encountered some problems. "I planned to sign the contract and the price was negotiated, but the owner suddenly asked for a price increase." Tianhe District milk factory area owner Li Ze also said, "the intermediary always called me recently and asked me to pay a high price. I can't sell second-hand there."

Tianhe Tianlang Mingju district's intermediary Xiao also pointed out in an interview, "if you can't sell a house, it's the same for first-hand and second-hand.". It's a fact, not an exaggeration! Starting from October 2020 (that's it), this month we'll wait for a lot of customers to worry about the offer. "

Market sentiment stabilizes

In fact, although Tianhe, Huangpu and other regions are in short supply, there is little speculation in the property market of Guangzhou. Even if there may be a "bid up the house price", the owners generally don't buy it, and the buying and selling behavior is more rational. From the owner's expected price, the market also has no obvious upward sentiment.

According to the data of Zhongyuan Real estate, at present, the prices of various districts in Guangzhou have risen to varying degrees, among which the price increase of central area is the most obvious. For example, Huangpu, Tianhe, Haizhu and other regions have increased by 18.0%, 10.1% and 11.6% respectively. However, in Huadu, Zengcheng and other peripheral areas, the increase rate was small, only 7.4% and 4.0%.

Xiao Wenxiao believes that the real estate market in various regions and plates in Guangzhou is differentiated. It is not easy to sell houses of any plate. Therefore, not all plates have the basis of price increase. At present, the phenomenon of second-hand house owners' price increase is Tianhe and Huangpu.

Liu Dong's house is in Haizhu District. Because the house is old, he has plans to sell, but he has not found the right time. "Our old campus can't (rise) and have no conditions. This year, Tianhe and Huangpu have risen, which has nothing to do with other districts."

In fact, even in Tianhe and Huangpu, many owners think that there are "irrational" factors in the market. Even in hot areas, owners also rationally view the performance of house prices. An owner of Tianhe milk factory area pointed out, "it's unreasonable to stir fry high prices in groups.". Do you really think the dairy can reach 74000? I always think this price is a lot of water. "

Huangpu District, a large market owner also said that he did not pay attention to the change of housing prices, "do not care, are virtual."

In fact, the consensus of local market people in Guangzhou is that the market in Guangzhou will be basically stable. That's all. Once you want to sell, can you trust the owners? Whatever you want to sell will follow the market. What we need to do now is to strengthen expectation management and public opinion guidance, increase the transparency of market data disclosure, stabilize the relationship between market supply and demand, and prevent excessive speculation by all parties. " Huang Lin, who has been observing the property market in Guangzhou for a long time.

In the latest report, the Central Plains research and Development Department of Guangzhou also pointed out that "the overall fundamentals of the property market in Guangzhou continue to improve, and more buyers will be able to obtain the purchase qualification in the future. At present, the enthusiasm of buyers to enter the market remains high, and the number of new customers is showing a steady upward trend. " In 2021, Guangzhou market may be the first to welcome a wave of "little spring". It is expected that the monthly turnover is expected to remain at a high level of more than 11000, exceeding the level in 2020, while the price will rise slightly or remain stable.