The Cost Side Impact Is Significant, PTA Price Will Follow The Oil Price Oscillation

In the near future, there are many domestic PTA plant maintenance plans, and the pressure at the supply end will be significantly eased. However, PTA price is still greatly affected by the cost side, and it is expected that PTA price will follow the oil price oscillation.

At the beginning of March, the price of PTA futures approached 5000 yuan / ton again, and then fluctuated and fell. Even though it rebounded in recent years under the support of many large-scale equipment parking and maintenance, the rise was relatively restrained. By the end of April 13, the main contract of PTA futures was at 4502 yuan / T, down more than 10% from the previous high of 5010.

The pressure on the supply side was significantly eased

In March, the domestic PTA plant maintenance plan began to increase, including Hengli petrochemical, Huabin petrochemical, Xinjiang Zhongtai and other large plants which were in operation in the early stage also joined the maintenance ranks. As of April 12, the daily operating rate of domestic PTA units was 81.02%, which was 6.55 percentage points lower than the previous peak and 11.25 percentage points lower than the same period in 2020. According to the existing PTA effective capacity, the domestic PTA daily output is about 137300 tons, which is about 5300 tons lower than the previous peak, and about 5200 tons higher than the same period in 2020.

In April, the domestic PTA plant maintenance scale is still large, including xinfengming, Ningbo Yisheng, Hengli Petrochemical line 1, etc. According to the estimation, if all the maintenance plans in April are carried out as scheduled, the domestic PTA output will be about 3.8543 million tons, and the loss will be about 1.2297 million tons, which will be about 652600 tons lower than that in March, and the domestic PTA supply pressure will be significantly eased.

Downstream operating rate remains high

Recently, the "lack of follow-up" of orders in the terminal market has led to the overall turnover of polyester market turning light. However, due to the low inventory level of various varieties in the early stage and the demand for replenishment, the start-up of polyester and terminal looms is still at a high level, and PTA demand can still be supported to some extent. As of April 12, the daily operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 86.28%, an increase of 35.28 percentage points compared with the same period in 2020; the daily operating rate of polyester factories was 91.35%, 8.03 percentage points higher than that of the same period in 2020. Based on the existing production capacity, the daily production of domestic polyester is about 159400 tons, which is about 22300 tons higher than the same period in 2020, and the daily demand for PTA is about 136300 tons, which is about 19000 tons higher than that in the same period in 2020.

Limited space for processing fee compression

At present, PTA processing cost (excluding acetic acid) is still at the low level of 300-400 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, 29-45 kg of acetic acid is needed to produce 1 ton of PTA. The domestic price of acetic acid has risen sharply this year, which makes it unable to be ignored in the calculation of PTA processing cost. If 35 kg acetic acid is used to produce 1 ton of PTA, the domestic PTA processing cost has been reduced to less than 200 yuan / ton, and almost all PTA production units in China are in deficit, so the space for further reduction of domestic PTA processing costs is limited. As of April 12, the domestic PTA processing fee (excluding acetic acid) was about 344.53 yuan / ton, which was 446 yuan / ton lower than that in the same period of 2020. After adding the price of acetic acid, the domestic PTA processing fee was about 90.78 yuan / ton, which was 629.75 yuan / ton lower than that in the same period of 2020.

To sum up, the most influential factor for PTA market is still from the cost side. In the near future, the international crude oil market is intertwined with many short-term factors, and the oil price fluctuates widely. In the case of significant cost side impact, the short-term PTA price will continue to follow the oil price oscillation.