Who Will Become The "King Of Vaccines" In China?

The rise of domestic vaccines

2021 is the first year of commercialization of the new crown vaccine. From rapid research and development, rapid approval to rapid large-scale commercialization, the progress is unprecedented in the global pharmaceutical industry.

In this decisive battle concerning the fate of mankind, no matter the size of enterprises, everyone is in the same running line. Thanks to the strong support of the state and its accumulated experience, Xinguan has objectively brought the opportunity for Chinese vaccine enterprises to overtake. With the listing of Xinguan vaccine and more innovative products, China's innovative vaccine enterprises are expected to realize the market counterattack against the traditional vaccine giants.

In fact, since the outbreak of Xinguan epidemic, the vaccine industry has rapidly become the "new favorite" of the capital market.

According to the batch issuance data of vaccine industry released by the Chinese people's Procuratorate in 2020, the vaccine industry will issue 630 million pieces of vaccine in batches, compared with 570 million pieces in the past six years. According to the bidding price of batch issuance, the domestic vaccine batch signing and delivery value in 2020 will reach 66 billion yuan, which is 23.5 billion yuan higher than that in 2019.

The competition pattern of the domestic vaccine industry has also ushered in many changes. According to the data of 100 shares, the market value of China's A-share vaccine listed companies was ranked. As of August 8, Zhifei biological ranked first, with a market value of 272 billion, becoming the only vaccine listed company with a market value of more than 200 billion in China. In 2020, the company has achieved a revenue of 15.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.48%. In 2021, Zhifei bio will continue to maintain a high growth rate. According to its public report, the first quarter's revenue is about 3.927 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 49.04%.

In the second echelon, Wantai biological, kangxinuo and Watson biological have all exceeded 100 billion yuan in market value; In 2020, the total operating revenue of Wantai biological will be 2.354 billion, with an increase of 98.88% compared with that in 2019; The marketing and sales of bivalent cervical cancer vaccine, the sales of new crown reagent and the company's income from technology transfer have become important pull forces to boost its revenue growth. According to the first quarter report that has been released, the performance of consinor and Watson biology are relatively outstanding, with operating revenue of 463 million and 434 million respectively. The three echelon enterprises Kangtai biology and Hualan biology both have a market value of more than 60 billion; Kanghua bio is currently at the bottom, with its highest price of 661.9 yuan per share.

There are not many vaccine companies on the market in China. At present, they are still in the early stage of development. Their main business is concentrated in the field of category II vaccine, with broad prospects.

From the perspective of the vaccine pipeline under sale and research of various vaccine enterprises, the pipeline layout of A-share listed companies is becoming increasingly rich, including heavy-duty vaccines and popular vaccines.

A pharmaceutical investor in South China told the reporter of the 21st century economic report that at present, it seems that after the new crown vaccine, there will be a great impact on the remodeling of the vaccine pattern. First of all, from the perspective of funds, the huge dividend brought by the new crown vaccine will inevitably inject strong fresh blood into the research and development of enterprises.

All round perspective of domestic vaccine Enterprises

The new coronavirus epidemic has made the research and development of vaccines for new coronavirus become the focus of research and development. According to the vaccine pipeline under sale and research of various vaccine enterprises, there are recombinant new coronavirus vaccine (CHO cell) of Zhifei biology, adenovirus vector of kangxinuo type 5 and mRNA vaccine of Watson biology.

In addition to the new crown vaccine, according to the list of the top 10 global sales vaccine varieties in 2020, there are 13 price pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine, recombinant human papillomavirus vaccine, influenza vaccine, quintuple vaccine, etc.

According to the white paper on the incidence and vaccine popularization of children with pneumonia in China, pneumonia is still one of the main causes of death among children under five years old. However, Pfizer, the only vaccine enterprise with 13 valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine, has benefited about 2.3 million infants and young children under 2 years old since it was listed in China. However, in recent years, the annual birth scale of newborns in China is about 15 million (15.23 million in 2018), which limits the supply side capacity, and the domestic market continues to be seriously in short supply.

Watson bio broke the monopoly of Pfizer in the United States and made up for the gap of 13 valent pneumonia vaccine. After the launch of the vaccine, Watson bio's performance soared. According to the first quarter report of 2021 released by Watson biological, the operating revenue of Watson biological in the first quarter was 434 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 286.45%. The revenue in the first quarter increased significantly year on year, mainly due to the increase in sales of 13 price pneumonia combined vaccine. The product was issued 1.64 million bottles in Q1, with a year-on-year increase of 1064%, reaching 37% of the batch issuance volume in 2020.

Secondly, the recombinant human papillomavirus vaccine, as a "net red" vaccine to prevent cervical cancer, has not been listed in China for a few years, and there has been a long-term "hard to get" situation. At present, only Wantai biological products are on sale in A-share listed enterprises, which is also the first domestic HPV vaccine enterprise.

The bivalent cervical cancer vaccine that Wantai biological has invested for many years has obtained the registration certificate on December 30, 2019, and officially put into the market in May 2020 to realize the sales revenue, which has become an important influencing factor to promote the growth of business income. According to its 2020 financial report, the bivalent (16 / 18) human papillomavirus vaccine is in the evaluation stage, and the phase I clinical trial of the nine valent HPV vaccine is nearing the end.

The R & D cycle of a vaccine is long, and it usually takes 7-15 years from R & D to production, while a leading vaccine pipeline can maintain a competitive advantage for a long time. Therefore, the first factor to seize the market is the speed of R & D. enterprises such as Watson bio and Wantai bio, which have seized the first batch of domestic popular vaccines, have obtained good market response.

The key factor determining the speed of R & D is R & D strength, which mostly comes from R & D investment of enterprises.

According to the annual reports of listed companies from 2018 to 2020, Watson bio and smartfly are the top two in the three-year cumulative R & D investment, both exceeding 900 million.

Watson biological has been making every effort to promote the research and industrialization progress of various products in the key stage of clinical research and industrialization, and most of them are popular vaccines in the market. The successful marketing of 13 valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine has proved that its bivalent and jiuvalent HPV vaccines have made important progress. In addition, the mRNA vaccine is also in the stage of clinical testing.

As a big brother in the industry, Zhifei biological also pays great attention to R & D. its accumulated revenue of independent products has exceeded 7.1 billion yuan. By the end of 2020, the company has 27 independent R & D projects, with rich R & D pipelines.

The second was kangxinuo, Kangtai biology and Hualan biology, with 711 million, 665 million and 522 million respectively. It is worth noting that according to the disclosure of conconor, it has not yet realized commercial sales of its products in 2019 and 2020, but its R & D investment can still reach 700 million, which shows its strong momentum. Compared with other giants, Kanghua biological has less R & D investment.

In short, domestic vaccine giants are now laying out heavy vaccine pipelines, increasing research and development, and launching all-round pursuit.

The development of Xinguan epidemic provides an important development opportunity for domestic vaccine enterprises, and for the R & D market, preemptive R & D increases the possibility of seizing market share. Feng Duojia, President of China Vaccine Industry Association, previously said that the core driving force for the development of the vaccine industry is scientific and technological innovation, and R & D strength will ultimately affect the market performance of enterprises. In recent years, domestic vaccine industry has increased R & D investment, which can be proved.

Who will become the "king of vaccines" in China

With the continuous improvement of vaccine awareness and vaccination rate, the vaccine industry has become the focus of capital attention. The vaccine industry has not only obtained a development opportunity, but also faces challenges and shocks.

In addition to the delta variant, there have been "delta +" and "ramda" mutants. Mutations of the new coronavirus may continue to appear in many parts of the world and spread to other regions, and it is not ruled out to break through the defense of existing vaccines.

At the same time, the neutralizing antibody produced by both natural infection and vaccination decreased slowly with time, and the neutralizing ability and protective effect of the vaccine to the mutant strain decreased. The spread of the mutant strain will lead to the rebound of epidemic situation in many countries and regions.

For the vaccine industry, the development of new vaccines against mutants will become the focus of competition.

In addition, from the perspective of global vaccine market, less developed countries and regions are relatively backward in scientific research capacity, production capacity, medical resources and other aspects, and can not rely on their own strength to ensure the supply of vaccines in the short term. According to the latest report released by the Boao Forum for Asia, less than 2% of the world's vaccines are vaccinated on the African continent, and only 0.9% of the population in low-income countries has received a new dose of vaccine.

"Vaccine industry series reports" released by Guoxin Securities also showed that there is structural imbalance in the new crown vaccine at this stage. The coverage rate of vaccine in low-income countries is only 1% - 2%. It is difficult to completely contain the epidemic situation only relying on public health means due to the lack of vaccine.

Therefore, for the domestic vaccine industry, strengthening exports may become a new driving force.

In this case, the domestic vaccine industry will also usher in a new situation, the "king of vaccines" will spend who, at present, there are still a certain number.