Data Analysis Of Cotton Yarn, Chemical Fiber And Wool Market In New Year

Prices pick up cautiously

Relevant data: after the "cold" situation of nearly a year's downturn in 2011, in 2012, some cotton mills cautiously raised the price of yarn as the downstream active replenishment bank and cotton raw materials rebounded slightly.

The average monthly price of the Chinese yarn index in the past year after a long decline, until the fourth quarter of 2011 only began to rise in December, and so far, the total cotton yarn has increased by 2.79%, while the cotton yarn has increased by 8.29%.

Market analysis: before the Spring Festival, there was a temporary warming in the cotton market. However, shortly after the Spring Festival, the domestic yarn market encountered difficulties.

Although yarn prices have risen, the market is still struggling.

At present, the downstream weaving enterprises are slow to start up, and the actual orders are limited, so the actual demand is hard to be allowed, causing the current market demand is insufficient, the paction is rather cold, the market mentality is generally cautious, and the confidence of the market is insufficient.

The pure polyester yarn market is affected by the weak adjustment of polyester staple market, the market keeps stable, and the future market will also be dominated by weak adjustment.

Pure cotton yarn market atmosphere is flat, affected by raw material cotton market insipid influence, its market price is stable, the sales situation is general, the actual demand is not big, the enterprise still mainly takes the delivery, the market situation is expected to maintain readjustment, the viscose staple fiber market has been quite firm recently, the human cotton yarn market price is firmer, but its sales volume also changes slightly, the human cotton yarn market also adjusts primarily.

Judging from the last quarter, the increase of chemical fiber yarn is obviously greater than that of pure cotton yarn. The reason is that in 2011, December, the downstream weaving mill and

Outlook for the future: domestic cotton prices have stabilized under the support of purchasing and storage policies, and rebounded in recent years, especially good grades of lint are favored by textile enterprises.

At present, most cotton merchants and textile enterprises begin to consider where the cotton price will go after the end of the purchase and storage.

Analysts believe that after the end of the purchase and storage, market supply and demand will determine the rational regression of cotton, repair and consolidation, and the fluctuation is limited.

Because the terminal demand is still constrained by the comprehensive environment at home and abroad, cotton yarn in the first quarter appears to be warmer and warmer. In the late February and even March, the price of yarn has not increased much. From the upstream and downstream feedback, the possibility of a slight rise is still there. But if there is no order matching, the price of yarn, especially the chemical fiber yarn, may be down sharply.

Second, the price of chemical fiber type polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber rose sharply after the Spring Festival holiday, and the price of raw materials increased. After the demand for the chemical fiber yarns increased, the price of "no market" worries led the market, and the possibility of high price drop of yarn prices increased. Thirdly, from the perspective of downstream demand, the actual market share of textile manufacturers and traders this year was significantly worse than that of last year, and the actual production of orders in the downstream weaving mills decreased. Thus, the scene of active replenishment has not appeared on time this year. First of all, after the start of textile enterprises this year, the inventory pressure is smaller than that of last year, so that there is a wait and see in February and March.

In addition, the short cycle and fast-paced purchase and sale in 2011 may continue in the first half of this year, so we must grasp the opportunity to import and export, control the pace and inventory situation.

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Market recovery slow, product turnover slump

Relevant data: according to the Ministry of Commerce's China Shengze silk chemical fiber index (hereinafter referred to as "Shengze index") monitoring shows that chemical fiber products in January this year, the market sentiment index was 109.45 points, compared with December last year, an increase of 2.41 points, there has been a slight upward trend.

However, since the Spring Festival, the market has changed to the trend of "rising first and then steady" in recent years.

On the 10 week of February 6th ~2, the index of Shengze index decreased by 0.2 points compared with the previous week, closing at 96.47.

Among them, the price index of chemical fiber fabrics dropped 0.16 points, closing at 96.13 points, and the chemical fiber index closed at 97.71 points, down 0.18 points from the previous week.

Market analysis: in January, due to the influence of Spring Festival, the market entered the traditional sales off-season, the order volume decreased significantly, the fabric sales situation was completely gone, the weaving factory inventories increased obviously, all these results were expected by enterprises.

In addition, according to past experience, the market trend of textile market tends to go up after the Spring Festival, so the weaving enterprises in January generally hold a much more mindset on the market.

At the same time, the textile raw materials market in January has been warming up, especially the chemical fiber raw materials market is rising obviously, some chemical fiber products prices are rising, and at the same time, it may support for the future market.

However, after the Spring Festival, the market downturn is somewhat unexpected.

Because chemical fiber raw materials market is basically strong, the price of PTA internal and external markets and futures prices have risen to a certain extent. In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets, the price of semi mainstream chips is still around 11300 yuan / ton.

But the downstream market is weak.

At present, the sales volume of the downstream fabric market is still flat, and there is little material demand for raw materials.

In addition, the inventory of grey fabric is generally high, so it is expected that the raw material market will not improve greatly in the short run, and the trend will be more stable and weaker.

Industry analysts believe that this is mainly the following factors.

First, the upward trend of upstream raw materials is slowing down, and the cost of pferring to the downstream tends to be cautious.

Recently, geopolitical issues such as Syria and Iran still provide impetus for the rise of international crude oil prices. However, influenced by various factors such as market supply and demand, the rise of polyester raw materials has begun to stabilize, and the pfer of costs to the downstream has begun to be cautious.

Two, downstream demand is insufficient, raw material sales are weak.

According to the data in 2011, the comprehensive index of foreign trade orders in China's textile industry has been running at a low level, and there has been a rapid downward trend.

Affected by this, the downstream textile market orders are relatively plain after the Spring Festival, and now the weaving factories generally have 1~2 months of grey stock, so the resumption of weaving after the festival is rather slow, and the rate of factory opening is generally not high.

Moreover, weaving factories have stocked up half a month to 1 months' raw material inventory before the festival, and the desire to purchase raw materials is not strong at present.

Three, it is difficult for textile enterprises to raise funds, and with higher inventory occupying funds, the pressure of enterprise funds has risen sharply.

Outlook: according to the current situation, internal and external demand is difficult to achieve substantial growth in the short term, so the market of chemical fiber market is mainly "cost driven" in the near future, and demand will continue to have a deterrent effect on the market.

It is expected that the overall operation of the chemical fiber industry will be more severe this year. If the cotton is picking up again in the second half of the year, the market will probably pick up and it will be better than the first half of the year.

Under the severe situation, the industry urgently needs to overcome the difficulties through active pformation and innovation.

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Ending the cold market and rising prices

Data: the Australian wool market in the last auction in January, the majority of the supply of Chinese wool, the eastern Australian market index (EMI) closed at 1194 Australian dollars / kg, compared with the last auction before the Australian dollar, the Australian dollar price fell by 0.1%.

After the Spring Festival holiday, wool prices continued to rise, and EMI closed at 1244 Australian cents per kilogram in February 16th.

Compared with the end of 2011, the wool market in New Zealand decreased by 0.5% in January to 9.20 New Zealand yuan / kg, while the price of fine crossbred wool fell 5.8% to 5.66 New Zealand yuan / kg; the price of coarse crossbred wool fell 5.9% to 5.15 NZD / kg.

The price of New Zealand wool continued to rise after the Spring Festival holiday.

Market analysis: in January, the world's major wool producing countries resumed auctions. With the forecast of global economic growth and the arrival of the Spring Festival holiday in China, the auction market was extraordinarily calm, and the gross price was generally callback.

At the beginning of February, wool prices began to rise sharply.

In mid February, the wool market tended to be stable.

After the Spring Festival holiday, the increase in wool prices is due to an increase in demand for wool.

It is understood that the start up of China's wool textile enterprises has led to an increase in demand for wool.

Meanwhile, the number of orders in Europe and India has also increased.

Exchange rate has great influence on wool market.

In January, Greece's debt negotiations progressed well, giving investors the prospect of a final agreement.

Market sentiment improved, European stock markets rose, gold and crude oil also drove commodity prices higher, the Australian dollar rebounded strongly against the US dollar, and the Aussie dollar closed against the US dollar at 1.0700, near the highest level in late 2011 10.

At the same time, the New Zealand dollar strengthened against the New Zealand dollar crossing, and the New Zealand dollar rose to above 8.

Last week, the Australian dollar remained at around 1.07, closing at 1.675 on Thursday, while the new currency exchange rate was basically stable at around 0.833.

In the January market description, although wool prices in Australian dollars fell slightly, the price of wool in dollar terms rose.

In February, although the price of wool rose, wool spinning still ushered in a slack season.

This year's off-season is more severe than before. The economic downturn, coupled with the lower purchasing power, the wool market and the rabbit hair and cashmere market are not optimistic.

Many complicated situations are gathered together and the test of enterprises is greater.

Outlook for the future: in the short term, the price of wool is hovering upward.

In the long run, the price of wool will also rise.

In addition, another characteristic of this year's wool supply is that most of the ranches are out of stock and the supply of wool is short.

Then, when will the gap between supply and demand be alleviated? At present, we still need to wait until the next wool year, that is, the 2012/2013 wool year.

Experts believe that even by that time, the overall supply of wool has increased by 3%~5%, making it difficult to make up for the gap between supply and demand.

According to the principle of supply and demand, it is difficult to see a downward trend in wool prices.