The Average Return Of Shanghai New Energy Concept Fund Is Far Higher Than That Of Beijing And Shenzhen "Hard Science And Technology" To Bear The Market Pressure

As the second quarter reports of public funds are almost released in succession, there is a view in the industry that new energy funds in Shanghai make more money than funds in Beijing and Shenzhen.

This is rare for funds to be labeled as "region". Even for the way in which fund managers in Shanghai earn money, fund managers in North and Shenzhen can't help but talk about it directly.

Will fund managers in Shanghai make more money?

In the traditional sense, the industry believes that the funds in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have different characteristics. For example, Beijing's investment institutions do more bonds, because bonds are closely related to national policies and monetary policies, and Beijing's institutions have natural advantages in grasping the policy direction; Shanghai's investment institutions do a lot of stocks, because many financial talents who come back from Wall Street and Central Hong Kong like to stay in Shanghai. The game of mature stock market is easier to be brought to Shanghai; Shenzhen, on the other hand, has a large number of small and medium-sized institutions, because Shenzhen is more open and more open to innovation; There are many quantified investment institutions in Hangzhou, because there are more IT companies

Recently, some institutional investment and research personnel said that the new energy fund group in Shanghai is making more money than the funds in Beijing and Shenzhen.

Therefore, we have made statistics on the net value and yield of public funds investing in the concept of new energy in the whole market from March 1 to July 20 this year. Excluding some extreme values, a total of 462 funds were left as analysis samples（ The starting point is March 1, which is after the white horse was killed at the beginning of the year, and before the "hard technology" market started; The ending point is July 20, which is before the drastic market fluctuation)

The statistical results show that from March 1, 2021 to July 20, 2021, the average return of 167 funds in Shanghai is 15.42%, that of 40 funds in Beijing is 11.94%, and that of 145 funds in Shenzhen is 10.81%.

In the new energy market in the second quarter, the average return of Shanghai's new energy concept fund really exceeded that of Beijing and Shenzhen, and the gap was more than four points.

"The reason for this gap is that Shanghai's funds have a special way of playing. In short, it's the expectation of overdraft of some companies on valuation." There are asset management investment research said.

The asset manager said that in the rising market of new energy and hard technology plate, different institutions have different opinions on how to value the companies in relevant sectors. For example, the institutions in Beijing and Shenzhen are relatively conservative. In a more optimistic context, many fund managers only dare to give the stock prices that appear according to the expected market value of three years, while the fund managers in Shanghai are more radical, and they have extended the expected market value to five years to calculate the current target stock price.

"Generally speaking, one year's certainty is the highest. After five years, who knows what the company will develop into. After three years of optimism, investment and research personnel will investigate the orders of upstream manufacturers of listed companies, such as the number of machines and parts purchased by Listed Companies in advance, and the corresponding number of products and profits they can produce in the future. Therefore, we can often rely on the upstream orders of listed companies to calculate its growth rate in 1-3 years According to the above-mentioned asset managers, the uncertainty will be too high in the future.

However, when the sentiment and liquidity in the second quarter were relatively high, optimistic fund managers filled their expectations and directly calculated the stock price according to the high growth rate of the listed company's five-year target production capacity. Especially in new energy, technology and other sectors, with the high growth of companies themselves and the direction of policy guidance, fund managers dare to give overvalues.

"The target stock price of 3-year valuation is lower than that of 5-year valuation. Therefore, for conservative fund managers, if the price of some stocks rises to a certain extent, they may need to sell them. However, as other fund managers set the target price too high, the stock price goes up again. For example, you hope to have 50% of the income this year, and now it has increased by 40%. But if others hope to have 50% income in two years, they will feel that the current price is reasonable and acceptable, they will buy it, and the share price will rise again. When you have reached your target price, do you want to sell it? Sold, may follow the market down; If you don't sell, the subsequent increase is beyond your cognitive range. " According to the above-mentioned asset managers, it is only more interesting that some sectors have shown regional characteristics this year. For example, Shanghai's new energy funds are willing to see five-year growth, while fund managers in North and Shenzhen are more conservative.

However, such "playing method" has obviously aroused the discontent of the Conservatives. Even Zhang Kun can't help but spend almost half of the space in the second quarter newspaper to "vent".

After the release of the second quarter report of e fund's medium and small cap, when talking about the investment strategy in the second quarter, Zhang Kun briefly said that his position in the second quarter had declined and the industry selection had been adjusted. The latter part almost said that some people in the market had reached the expected value of valuation, even reached 2030. He did not approve of this behavior.

In addition, when Starstone investment was looking forward to the market in the second half of the year, some media asked how to look at the market situation of science and technology stocks and whether it had deviated from the fundamentals. Fang Lei, the deputy general manager of Xingshi investment, instinctively answered the question of three-year and five-year valuation, and denied this kind of valuation method.

This more or less indicates that fund managers have been "dissatisfied" with the overvalued value of some enterprises for five years.

"Hard technology" took over in the panic

According to the five-year valuation of the target stock price, it is obviously a little high. As Zhang Kun said, if the market value of 2025 or even 2030 is discounted back to the current year, and the target stock price is given, the correct rate of investors' judgment is undoubtedly very high.

However, the recent market volatility seems to tell the market that the judgment of institutional investors is not always correct.

"We all know that the valuation of many sectors is too high. At this time, we are most afraid of sudden changes in market sentiment. If we reduce our risk preference, we will naturally reduce the valuation period, which may lead to the killing of valuation in multiple industries. " Private investment research personnel said.

On July 27th, after two consecutive days of market losses, the mood of concern was widespread. Although the mainstream view said that it was the withdrawal of foreign capital that led to the decline of a shares. But from the data point of view, this view does not hold water.

On July 26 and 27, the net sales of northward funds were 12.802 billion and 4.172 billion respectively. In fact, the net sales volume was converging, but the market did not stabilize. In addition, on the 27th, the total turnover of the whole market was 1.5 trillion, and the total turnover of northward funds was 174.542 billion, accounting for only 1 / 10 of the total turnover of the whole market. What's more, it was the panic flight of domestic capital.

"On the 28th, the net purchase of northward funds was more than 8 billion yuan. It is obvious that Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange are turning green. Whether foreign capital is smashing the market or domestic capital is panicking is obvious." Said the private equity source.

However, there are still many views in the industry that consumption and real estate may not be good targets, but there are still differences on energy, technology and other sectors. The funds already in the car do not dare to "rush out of the car". In the market, in the previous two days of falling market, new energy and other "hard technology" plates have withstood the decline. Some investment institutions will appropriately reduce their positions, but some investment institutions will increase their positions against the trend, especially in the hard technology sector.

It is understood that a foreign-funded asset management has been seriously redeemed by investors since this year, mainly because the asset management has bought a lot of Maotai and real estate stocks, and the withdrawal is relatively large.

And new energy, technology and other sectors, although has exceeded the heart of some fund managers to buy the price, but no one can say that now the stock price has been high enough to need hedging.

In addition, according to the data of Tianfeng securities, the industries with an average valuation higher than 80% of the historical percentile are: commercial retail, comprehensive, automobile, consumer service, food and beverage, computer, transportation, medicine and media. However, the average valuation of power equipment, new energy, electronics and other industries is still far from the quantile of various "Mao" in the historical valuation of the industry.