"Lack Of Core" Will Continue To Schedule Capacity In Dawan District To Meet The Opportunity Period Of In-Depth Layout Of Semiconductor Industry Two Years Later

"Lack of core" is a key word throughout this year's semiconductor industry. In the process of capacity mediation, the domestic supply chain is also reshaping.

On the one hand, many terminal enterprises have been affected. This round of special shortage problem has been concerned since the shutdown of automobile factories. With the decline of global auto sales in the past two years, the orders related to automobiles of wafer factories were already decreasing, so the relevant mature capacity allocation was also decreasing. After the new crown epidemic, the industrial chain was worried about the decline in demand, which further covered up the capacity problem. However, the demand for automobiles, 5g, cloud computing and IOT began to rebound, but the mature capacity was insufficient. Coupled with the trade war, hoarding and other factors, supply and demand have been unbalanced since the chain reaction.

On the other hand, the shortage of production capacity also brings opportunities for upstream enterprises such as chips“ In fact, in the first half of this year, domestic semiconductor enterprises encountered a once-in-a-lifetime shortage opportunity. Many companies have been given more growth opportunities and some opportunities in overseas customers. " Sheng Linghai, vice president of research at Gartner, points out that for the Chinese market, Gartner expects the revenue share of Chinese semiconductor companies to double from 15% in 2020 to 30% in 2025.

For the semiconductor enterprises in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay area, facing the industry boom cycle, they also have the opportunity to expand the scale and deepen the layout.

"Chip shortage" continues

It is reported that the most urgent chip types include MCU, power management chip, screen driver chip and so on. Taking MCU as an example, in recent years, with the development of Internet of things and the acceleration of automobile electronization, the demand of MCU is also rising rapidly. According to the data of IC insights, the number of global MCU shipments and market size has maintained a steady growth in the past five years. The global MCU product shipment increased from 22058 million in 2015 to 36065 million in 2020, and its market size increased from US $15945 million in 2015 to US $20692 million in 2020. From the growth of MCU, we can see that in recent years, the product demand of mature technology is rising, while the mature capacity expansion is less. Under the influence of multiple factors such as automobile demand change, epidemic situation, trade friction and so on, a special shortage period has been formed.

This has also led to multiple rounds of price hikes for related chips, with prices rising from 30% to doubling. However, the cruel reality is that some enterprises can't buy chips by increasing prices. The instability of the market greatly tests the supply chain management ability of enterprises.

Many entrepreneurs told 21st century business reporter that the whole market is in a chaotic stage, and the cycle of chip shipment this year will be too long. In addition to competing for the production capacity of wafer manufacturers, we also need to grab the capacity of packaging test. The production capacity has been arranged to 2022 and 2023. According to the reporter's understanding, some chip design small enterprises have not been able to tape because they can't get the capacity schedule of wafer factories and packaging plants. Some practitioners also said that some packaging factories only accept orders after two years.

Behind the shortage is the shortage of capacity, especially the mature capacity of 8 inches and 12 inches. In the first quarter of this year's financial report, TSMC president Wei Zhejia said that the capacity shortage will continue throughout the year, and may continue to 2022. At the second quarter financial report, Intel CEO Kissinger predicted that the supply shortage would bottom out in the second half of the year, but it would take another year or two to fully catch up with the industry demand.

According to semi data, global semiconductor manufacturers will continue to increase 8-inch wafer production capacity from 2020 to 2024, with an increase of 950000 pieces / month, an increase of 17%, to a new historical record of 6.6 million pieces / month. Among them, China accounts for the majority of 8-inch wafer production capacity in 2021, accounting for 18%.

Debate on "localization"

Under the background of tight production capacity, enterprises in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay area have the opportunity to go further in localization, wafer foundry and emerging markets.

For example, in the field of MCU, Tianfeng securities research report points out that due to the continuous shortage of production capacity of upstream wafer factories and sealing and testing plants, the prices of raw materials continue to rise. Against the background of continued strong demand in the downstream terminal market, the overall supply of MCU is in short supply, which leads to the extension of the delivery cycle and the price rise exceeds the expectation. Under the background of stock shortage, domestic MCU manufacturers usher in important opportunities. Prior to this, BYD semiconductor announced that the cumulative shipment of vehicle size and industrial grade MCU chips has exceeded 2 billion; Xinhai Technology and Quanzhi technology achieved significant growth in the first quarter.

According to the data of prospective industry research institute, more than 74% of China's MCU market is occupied by overseas manufacturers such as Italian semiconductor, NXP, microchip technology, Renesas electronics and Infineon, while the market share of local MCU manufacturers is only about 10%. In this wave of supply in short supply process, domestic enterprises further rise.

Looking at Yuexin semiconductor, it has been actively expanding production capacity. Its mature capacity is the current market demand, and its development momentum is rapid; At the same time, emerging industrial fields also usher in opportunities, such as risc-v industry, the popular third generation semiconductor industry and so on; In addition, Huawei, oppo and other terminal enterprises in Dawan district are constantly investing in domestic semiconductor companies to support the growth of the domestic industrial chain. In order to supply security, downstream customers are willing to give domestic semiconductor companies more opportunities to improve the yield rate and localization ratio.

However, it is worth noting that "localization" has been controversial in the industry. Narrow definition and praise of domestic production are not conducive to industrial development. Gu Wenjun, chief analyst of icwise, pointed out that it is difficult to accurately define the localization of chips. In the real world, there are no chips in the whole industry chain that are manufactured by a single country. Some people take the opportunity to blur the meaning of localization, deliberately avoid the real and seek profits in disorder.

Gu Wenjun said: "the most important thing about a chip is not the identity of localization, but whether it can solve the problem. One is whether it can serve our economy. At present, the car industry is out of production due to the lack of core. No matter who supplies chips for the automobile enterprises, the production line can be turned on and the car supply market can be created. Consumers will not ask who supplies the chips. Second, whether we can develop our semiconductor industry. As long as we can make our semiconductor supply chain work normally, upstream and downstream enterprises will be able to connect with each other, R & D funds will be available, and technology and talents will be improved. Then our industry will certainly be in progress, and the ability to resist blockade will be enhanced. "