National Bureau Of Statistics: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Rose To Expansion Range In September

On September 30, 2022, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

In September, the purchasing manager index of the manufacturing industry was 50.1%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the critical point; The non manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.6% and 50.9%, respectively, which were higher than the critical point for four consecutive months. China's overall economic growth continued in three months.

1、 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to expansion range

In September, as the package of policies for stabilizing the economy continued to play an effective role, and the impact of high temperature weather subsided, the manufacturing industry's outlook was somewhat warmer, and PMI returned to the expansion range.

（1） Production has expanded. In September, the manufacturing industry entered the traditional peak season, and the production index rose to 51.5%, 1.7 percentage points higher than the previous month, and returned to above the critical point again. The production activities of manufacturing enterprises have accelerated. From the perspective of the industry, the production index of refined tea, medicine, non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing, and general equipment manufacturing industries rose to 54.0% or above, and the production capacity of enterprises was released rapidly. At the same time, in order to meet the needs of production, the enterprise's procurement of raw materials increased, the purchasing index rose to 50.2%, and the market activity of the manufacturing industry increased.

（2） The prosperity level of large, medium and small enterprises has rebounded. The PMI of large enterprises was 51.1%, up 0.6 percentage points over the previous month. It was in the expansion range for two consecutive months. The production index and the new order index were 53.7% and 51.0% respectively, and the production and demand increased simultaneously. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.7%, 0.8% higher than that of the previous month, and the prosperity level continued to improve; The PMI of small enterprises was 48.3%, 0.7% higher than that of the previous month, and the prosperity level turned from decline to rise.

（3） Companies are expected to improve. The expected index of production and operation activities was 53.4%, 1.1 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the confidence of manufacturing enterprises rose. From the perspective of industry situation, the expected production and business activities index of agricultural and sideline food processing, food and wine beverage refined tea, medicine, automobile, railway, ship, aerospace equipment manufacturing and other industries are in a relatively high boom range of more than 58.0%. Enterprises in related industries are optimistic about the market development prospects in the near future.

Although the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry rebounded this month, the index of new orders was 49.8%, which continued to be in the contraction range, indicating that the manufacturing market demand was still weak.

2、 Expansion of non business activity index maintains

In September, the non manufacturing business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.0 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the critical point, and the overall expansion of non manufacturing industry slowed down.

（1） The prosperity level of the service industry fell. In September, affected by the epidemic situation and other factors, the business activity index of the service industry dropped to 48.9%, 3.0 percentage points lower than the previous month, which was lower than the critical point, and the market activity of the service industry was weakened. From the perspective of industry situation, the business activity index of production and service industry continues to be in the expansion range, among which the business activity index of postal service, telecommunication, radio and television, satellite transmission service, monetary and financial service industry are all higher than 60.0%, and the total business volume is growing rapidly; The business activity index of life service industry dropped to the contraction range, which was the main factor for the decline of service industry in this month. Among them, the business activity index of contact aggregation service industries such as retail, air transportation, accommodation, catering and resident service were all lower than 45.0%, with a large decline. From the perspective of the expected prosperity index of the telecommunications industry and the television service industry, both of which are in the high range of 56.5% expected in the boom period of the previous month, the confidence of the telecommunications industry and the television service industry remained at a high level of 1.5% from the expected boom index of the telecommunications industry and the television service industry.

（2） The construction industry rose to a high level. The business climate index rose to a high of 3.7% last month, higher than that of the construction industry. Among them, the business activity index of civil engineering construction industry is 61.0%, which is the highest point in recent four months, which indicates that the recent policy measures such as activating special bonds and policy financial instruments further promote the implementation of infrastructure construction projects and accelerate the expansion of production activities in the construction industry.

3、 Composite PMI output index continues to expand

9% in the previous month, but the overall expansion pace of China's enterprises continued to slow down to 8.0%. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, are 51.5% and 50.6% respectively.